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And democrats are surprised? Biden has been a hot mess for a year and dems have been denying it and screaming fake news. This is all BS. This is exactly what they wanted or they wouldn’t have agreed to the debate.

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I'm also outraged by the Dems' (and media's) insistence that black is white and white is black. I don't actually think the timing of the debate was part of some deep strategy though. Remember that Biden and his inner circle had to agree to the June debate. I think what they figured was that having it early in the calendar would mean that it wouldn't matter that much - although maybe somebody in on the decision was able to convince the Biden team to have the earlier debate in order to provide an off-ramp in case this happened. If so, that would have been a canny figure somewhere in the Democratic establishment. My guess though is that the timing was mostly a matter of sheer denial on Biden's part.

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It was so bad it is possibly good. It will require almost no courage for party leaders to be part of an Intervention here, but it needs to come fast.

The time between the convention and the election is light years in current Cell Phone Time. No one will remember Biden by November. (I don’t mean as a man. I mean as a candidate.)

Youth will be kryptonite for Trump if it’s possible to get it on the ballot. The one thing Trump fears is looking bad, and a younger candidate, particularly if attractive, of either gender, will cook him.

But every Democrat leader needs to be on the phone with him in the next 48 hours or this thing is lost and so is the Senate and so is the House.

Biden needs to do the unthinkably heroic.

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That's true Adam. There may be some silver linings here. The problem is that Team Biden is in deep, deep denial - that goes for Biden, for his family, and his inner circle. "He answered every question" and "he had a cold" are symptomatic of the level of denial that's gone on here. Still, I think this may be enough to force his withdrawal. If there's enough of a dip in fundraising, if enough Democratic dignitaries tell him the hard truth, and, most importantly, if a round of polling reflects a major swing towards Trump (as it almost certainly will), that may be just enough to penetrate the Great Wall of Denial. One can only pray.

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Obama sure didn't help matters weighing in with a vote of confidence. After years of keeping a puzzling distance, on the most critical possible issue, he shows up. Really frustrating, but good for the NYT.

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I couldn't believe it when I saw that. My hope against hope is that it's part of the delicate conversation with Biden - that he probably won't step aside until he sees a truly disastrous round of polling. It behooves Obama if he's going to be part of the group that has the difficult conversation to show public support first. Fingers crossed that that's the case.

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I tried to watch the debate with an open mind and the mind of someone who's just tuning in to the 2024 election.

I generally agree with your assessments. Trump conveyed energy and confidence while lying consistently. When Biden misstated facts, it seemed to be less willful and more a case of incoherence.

I think Trump did a good job ducking the January 6th question (to someone who doesn't read the NYT).

I also think his answer on abortion was good for that same population. He came across as reasonable by making it state vs, federal and mentioning (coherently) how in Ohio and Kansas the voters struck down anti-abortion bills. Plus he backed the SC on keeping pills legal.

When i returned to my own mind, I remained 100% against Trump as president. But my "margin" between Trump and Biden shrank. I'll support and vote for Biden, but post-debate, I'll be less upset if Trump wins.

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😂😂😂 Trump lies but Biden “misstated facts” 😂😂😂

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It's really astonishing. Not only did Trump seem mainstream, but Robert Kennedy - a man who thinks Covid was deliberately engineered to spare Jews - came across as the voice for his debate commentary.

I think all may be well actually. Bad poll numbers can persuade Biden to step aside. Then there's some smoky room deal in the Chicago convention. The Dems land on Buttigieg or Whitmer or anyone really and they get to run the equivalent of an insurgent campaign, with youth on their side, and able to exploit Trump's many vulnerabilities - and, also, that Robert Kennedy vote should be ripe for the taking.

But Biden MUST step aside. If he doesn't, there is literally no chance.

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I think Gretchen has the best shot. I <3 Pete but damn he’s young and inexperienced. That said, you left off the California elephants in the room. Gavin and Kamala both have lower chances of winning than then the other guys, but are still preferable than the any of the currently slated candidates.

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Great commentary, Sam. It was painful to watch and you’re absolutely right - Biden’s only hope of winning is to pass the baton - otherwise “Trump II” it is.

I just couldn’t believe they were arguing about golf handicaps at such an important time in history. Biden actually came across as the more childish one, which is what happens when people become senile. And all that Botox only made him look worse, which is also what happens when people can’t accept and embrace the natural course of time.

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Thank you Petra. The worst part for me was that Biden seemed so mean. There was a big difference between "My son had a drug problem...He's overtaken it and I'm proud of him" in 2020 and "You're the loser, you're the sucker" in 2024. Biden's strength was always that he had a big heart and seemed like a decent guy. The Biden we saw on Thursday was snarly and petulant. Even pity can't redeem his performance here.

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Yes the “loser / sucker” outburst was very unpresidential—rather than taking the higher ground, he stooped to his opponent’s level. He did seem mean, petulant and full of loathing. The biggest problem with Trump is the level of hatred he ignites, both towards him and within his supporters towards everyone who isn’t a Trumper. If he wins, hatred will reign and run this country. We need someone like MLK Jr. for president to restore civilization, equality, peace and love. I hope to see a leader like that in the White House in this lifetime.

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This is common in people with dementia, sadly.

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The brokered convention might be a theoretical possibility, but that dredges up some very bad memories of caucusing for Bernie Sanders in 2016 and for Amy Klobuchar in 2020.

In 2016, I watched the Clinton machine steal a delegate at the county convention. Clinton and Sanders were tied 50-50 in Marion County. The volunteers checking people in were all Clinton people, and they assured several Sanders alternates they didn't need to stay. Turns out Sanders was short two delegates in the initial count and only one alternate remained. So a Clinton alternate stood in for the first count and then realigned for the second. I imagine that scenario repeated itself many times over. It was the first time I really understood superdelegates and how heavily weighted the system was (if not outright rigged).

In 2020, Biden was a distant fourth in Iowa. He was then dead last in New Hampshire before winning South Carolina. But what happened then was that people began to see that Bernie could really win this time. And so all the major challengers started dropping out and endorsing Biden because he was the establishment favorite, not the people's choice.

I don't think a brokered convention necessarily helps Democrats, because it will only make people in rural states, the South, and the Rust Belt, feel even more like they don't matter. It will be a New York, California convention. Insiders and superdelegates. And the message that Trump has been sending to flyover states, that no one sees them but him, will only be stronger. I saw the horse trading at the Iowa Caucuses for four different election cycles, and it's not charming grassroots democracy -- it's often disenfranchisement.

Dems need to start paying attention to the energy Bernie generated, because much of that was also real for Buttigieg and Yang. There are elite players available, but the party keeps them on the bench.

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That makes a lot of sense Josh. I think the original sin for the Dems was the dirty games Hillary played to squeeze out Bernie in 2016 - and that extended to the press as well. Bernie could have beaten Trump actually. But the Dems went for this extra-democratic route, superdelegates and dirty tricks and the kind of thing you're talking about with Biden in 2020. And here we are now. The Democratic Party become a sort of elite gerontocracy reliant on a totally self-contained media bubble. That whole approach collapsed like a house of cards on Thursday. The question is if the Dems can reorganize in time for November. Of course I agree that a brokered convention is far from ideal, but it really is the only option at this point.

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The night before, I paid 8.34 for a gallon of milk and 4.48 for a box of cereal at a Walmart. My wife does all the shopping so the price jump was visceral. As I walked through the parking l thought Biden had no shot.

And now reading reports about the debate performance .... unfortunately I doubt the Dems leadership have any guts to do what’s right for the country.

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Interesting. I haven't been able to get any clarity on the inflation question. There are all these sophisticated arguments that there's no inflation....except for on basic household goods. But it shouldn't take a sophisticated economist to realize that that's only the type of inflation that would matter for voters. I don't understand, though, how that all plays out in economics terms.

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Yeah I regularly repeat that economics makes no sense because everything seems to end up paradoxically the opposite of what you’d expect. As a middle class government bureaucrat who is generally frugal there is a chance that the last couple of COLA increases have resulted “winning” financially, but such abstractions don’t at all cushion the blow of the day to day inflation at the cash register.

As for sophisticated economic arguments, I’ve mentally written them off as “it’s unfair that Trump got to spend wildly and cut taxes while our side suffers the consequences!” Yeah that sucks. But them’s the breaks when you pursue (and get) power. Whining just makes you look weak. (See also the complaints about the Afghanistan withdrawal being originally Trump’s idea).

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Your WAR argument is persuasive on this terrifying day after. Hopefully Friedman’s op-ed will straighten the spine that Democrat leaders need today. They did it to Nixon, they can do it now. Just a bit of black humour from last night to help you through:

“Biden: actively dying

Trump: actively lying

Me: actively crying”

- Cody Duncan (@Maybe_I’m_Cody)

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I was pleasantly surprised by the Friedman piece - and the entire Times editorial board coming out on this. Part of the back story here, though, is that the Biden inner circle somehow convinced itself that the Times was planting stories about Biden's age - and tried to pressure The Times to drop the topic altogether. So it's not clear that the Biden people are listening to anyone else at this stage.

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🥲

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All excellent points, Sam. And made from a galaxy far, far away :)

You know what Sam Adams said, "Public business must always be done by somebody. If the wise decline, others will not; if the honest refuse it, others will not." The wise and honest [and vigorous] seem not to want to bother with governing these days... But who knows, maybe a youthful Abe Lincoln will emerge before the convention...

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Thank you Leslie! Well, it's a small world!

I've been wondering how Pete Buttigieg would look in a stovepipe hat. I think pretty good!

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Jill Biden loves the limelight too much to talk him out of it.

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I'd given her next to no thought before this week, but the clip of her talking to supporters after the debate made very clear a lot of the dynamics between them. She clearly is a bit deranged and has an us v. the world mentality. All in all, it's hard to imagine a more dangerous situation - the Biden inner circle has all possible decision-making power here and yet have taken an almost total flight from reality.

I was somewhat mollified by this piece though - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/us/politics/jill-biden-says-she-reassured-the-president-in-the-moments-after-a-dismal-debate.html

Amidst all the blandishments, it's clear that she does at least realize that the debate didn't go well and that stepping down is in the realm of consideration.

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Have you seen the clip, where in my eyes at least, she talks to him like I talk to my 3 year old niece? It’s scary.

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You mean this one? - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9nYLnrou8A

Yeah, that says so much. It's Marcia with Logan Roy after his heart attack. She knew that he might fall apart completely - i.e. might not be able to get through 90 minutes - and I think she genuinely was proud of him at the moment she said that.

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Yeah that’s the one. Jesus it’s not even just me that thinks it!!

She probably is proud but surely she has to look at it and say enough is enough?

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I'm sad to say I agree with you completely! And I just got a text from him asking for more donations for his campaign.

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Don't send any money! They're using donations to convince themselves that things didn't actually go that badly. I think it's important to starve the campaign in the next week or two to help them see the light. There is just absolutely no way that Biden can win after this.

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I watched the RFK livestream in conjunction with the debate. He made very short work of both of them.

When it's clear that both parties have abandoned us, we should look outward of the dichotomous choices we've been falsely lead to believe are the "only" choices.

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RFK has become the sanest politician in the race. Think about that!

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This is a great wraparound take. Trump's raw charisma and poise should not be underestimated. You'd think the wonks and data fetishists would be humbled after 2016, but the post-debate pundit prevarication and cant were surreal in the extreme. As you write, here's to hoping this fiasco jars the Democratic establishment into organizing a brokered convention.

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Thank you Ben. This incarnation of the Democratic Party (the Hillary/Biden era) is finished. It's gerontocratic, corrupt, and living entirely in its own bubble. On demographics, the Dems should be winning, but they tend to totally reboot. That can either happen after a disastrous November or in a cantankerous August. I vote for the latter option.

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I agree. What do you think it would take to "pop" this bubble and shake up the DNC? A big question, I know, and possibly demanding a different medium than a comment reply. My fantasy of mutiny and a progressive coup is probably unlikely.

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Again, a most objective and comprehensive commentary on a complex subject. What we need are two candidates who put the country FIRST. Truth is truth. Seeing is believing. Both need to step aside for the greater good. Politics, political pundits, the media, people calling Biden's performance a "bad night" and Trump not directly addressing any issue, I am tired of these. Americans are caught in the middle of two inferior choices. People are hurting, people are dying, wars are escalating and we have two candidates who only seek what they want, not what America needs right now. Biden needs to step down. He is too frail. He needs to have more sense than ambition.

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Thank you Cathy. Mistakes by an American president result in the deaths of thousands If not millions. There is no room for politeness anywhere in this - and the Democratic insiders who don't have the nerve to pose the hard questions to Biden are doing no one any favors at all. The Dems still have time to get a winning (and lucid) candidate. Everything depends on whether they have it in them to make the change.

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What’s the point of collecting political juice as an insider if you don’t cash in those chips in a time like that! Unfortunately those courtesans who have spent their entire lives playing such games are almost certainly not the types to make such bold moves.

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Jun 29Liked by Sam Kahn

It's up to Biden. We'll just have to wait and see what he decides.

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Even the short clips I watched from the debate were too painful to watch. I agree with you on every point. Let’s hope (pray?) that the people close to Biden can lovingly make the same points to him and convince him to retire with dignity. I’m too worried to contemplate the alternative…

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To be fair, there was a section towards the middle of the debate that was sort of ok and then it unraveled again with the golf handicaps.

Unfortunately, it seems like those close to Biden have drunk the kool-aid. It's just unreal right now. They're bringing the whole country down.

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Wholly agreed that Biden has to step down. My vote is to beat the Republicans at their own game and choose Taylor Swift or Beyonce (w/ Jay Z as vice) or Lebron James. Because let's be honest. If we're at a point in American history where a convicted rapist, felon, embezzler, and reality TV star host can become president AGAIN, well hey, why not give the job to a group of people that tens of millions consider the GOAT?

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I know! What happened to the Oprah candidacy? That might have worked actually.

The polling numbers are showing that, actually, a dead man could beat Trump - so it looks like Biden, unbelievably enough, has a chance. But that means also that ANYBODY else would be doing better than Biden. Democratic voters have consistently expressed a 2:1 preference for literally anyone else to be on the ballot. Having Biden also means the loss of a huge percentage of voters - 10-15% - to RFK, who would almost certainly be coming back if there was a viable Democratic candidate.

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I'm relieved to read your words re: polling numbers, even if I'm of the era of Nate Silver botching 2016, so who the hell knows what polls actually mean these days.

I'm curious: in your wizened opinion, is there a clear / obvious choice for a replacement? Because if there's not, my vote is Michael Jordan. The GOAT. Only Lebron wouldn't vote for him. It's a lock I tell ya!

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